An Introduction To NFL Preseason Handicapping
There’s not much ‘middle ground’ when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the ‘boiler room’ sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there’s no more sure thing than preseason football. There’s a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.
The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone–simply stated, the games don’t count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It’s hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable ’spot’ during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.
But like the old saying goes “every dark cloud has a silver lining”. And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an ‘also ran’ team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they’ll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A “better” team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don’t need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating ‘team chemistry’. As a result, ‘better’ teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.
NFL ‘doormats’, meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They’ve often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They’ve often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they’re in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a ‘meaningless’ preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.
Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.
Perhaps nothing determines a team’s approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line ‘em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn’t lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants’ Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.
The Internet has become a very valuable weapon in the NFL preseason handicapper’s arsenal. Simply following the local media reports of NFL teams can often produce a wealth of ‘mission critical’ betting information. The combination of anxious beat writers, little in the way of ‘real’ news, and a less guarded approach by coaches to games that ‘don’t count’ can often reveal game strategies, playing time for key personnel, or even a team’s specific agenda for a particular game. Sometime coaches will come right out and say that evaluating a certain position, or working on a specific offensive scheme is their top priority for a game. It’s a great way to find not only good teams to bet on, but strong situations to go against teams that are focused on something other than outscoring their opponent.
In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.
Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.
